Will Democrats save their Senate majority? You may know the answer early on tonight — if you know where to look.
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Former President Donald Trump in court
Supporters of Donald Trump who are most likely to reconsider their support if he is convicted in his Manhattan hush money trial have very Joe Biden-friendly profiles, according to a CNN poll on Americans’ views of the criminal proceedings.
While three-quarters of current Trump supporters said a criminal conviction would be immaterial to them, 24 percent said they "might reconsider" their support. In other words, of all the voters supporting Trump in the survey, 76 percent were MAGA diehards, while roughly a quarter were more malleable.
So let's take a look at a profile of these squishier Trump supporters, according to the survey:
"These are the exact voters who propelled Trump to his very narrow lead in the polling average. Younger voters, independents, Black and Latino voters are groups Trump struggled with in 2020 but is doing better with now,” points out Dan Pfeiffer, White House communications director for the Obama administration.
The 2024 presidential race is effectively even now, with the 538 aggregate giving Trump just a one-point advantage. Both camps need to persuade more voters into their corners to cement a win, but Biden even more so given Republicans' built-in advantage in the electoral college. And a candidate always wants the pool of voters they need to woo to be predisposed to supporting them in the first place.
For Biden, that means he wants those squishy Trump supporters to generally be younger, voters of color, people who view themselves as moderates, people who believe he won 2020 legitimately, and people who voted for him last time. That includes everyone from the poll who could be persuaded to vote for Biden if Trump is convicted.
Perhaps more importantly, CNN may have located the exact profile of the Trump supporters who have enough doubts about him to admit as much to a pollster. That alone suggests that they could be open to other Democratic arguments against Trump, so the Biden campaign could begin its persuasion efforts even before a verdict comes down.
Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.
Kari Lake
Arizona GOP candidate Kari Lake hopes to secure a US Senate seat this year with the help of her longtime ally — Donald Trump — but the ex-president's support isn't promised, according to The Washington Post.
In January, Arizona Republican Party Chairman Jeff DeWit abruptly resigned after Lake "warned that she would 'leak additional recordings of their private conversations.'
When she later publicly endorsed fellow MAGA supporter Gina Swoboda to replace DeWit during a Republican event, Lake "was met with 'boos and jeers as she took the stage.'"
The Postreports:
Trump’s top advisers were furious after a Lake ally released a recording of then-Arizona GOP Chairman Jeff DeWit encouraging her to stay out of the Senate race, which embarrassed the party chairman and led him to resign.
Trump was more surprised than angry when told about the January incident, according to three people familiar with his reaction. 'She tapes everything?' he asked, sitting in a New Hampshire hotel suite before taking the stage on the night he won that state’s primary. 'That’s good to know.'
Now, the newspaper reports, "Since Lake jumped into the race, Trump has repeatedly expressed skepticism about her political prospects in a state he sees as key to his bid to return to the White House, and has shown annoyance with her frequent presence at his Florida resort, according to five people close to him, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe his comments."
Furthermore, the Post notes the incident "killed any desire by some elected Republicans in the state to communicate with her, fearing they could be secretly recorded."
One top Arizona Republican told the Post, “Whether they end up voting for Kari Lake or not, they don’t trust her. They think they’re being recorded and it’s a running joke.”
The newspaper emphasizes, "So far, there has been no public schism between Trump and Lake, and the Senate candidate was at Mar-a-Lago again this month for a fundraiser. But Trump’s frustration with Lake has only increased over the past year, heightening the tension between the presumptive GOP presidential nominee and one of his most prominent followers — casting doubt on whether Republicans can present a sufficiently united front to win a key U.S. Senate contest and a presidential battleground state."
Reprinted with permission from Alternet.
